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truthWell, my birthday came and went again, and I still can’t figure out how I got over the hill without getting to the top! But I have found a way to increase my fitness quotient without working any harder yet still impressing all my friends and family. I have officially renamed “the John” to “the Jim”. It sounds so much better when I tell people I go to the Jim every morning!

I am very concerned that our society is grappling with what is truth and what is not. It has infected our politics, our media, the stock market and I am afraid maybe the real estate market as well. If you don’t understand what the market is saying, then you are not listening closely enough.

Ten years ago, the Fed was pushing on the string trying to get rates down low enough to kick start the economy – no luck. Now, with the economy humming the Fed is again walking the tight rope pushing rates up to slow down but not stop the growth. I guess you call it Quantitative Tightening (or QT vs QE). Remember when we were saying that there was cap rate “compression” because interest rates were so low that cap rates were pushed lower. Well with rates on the rise shall we call it “decompression”? In scuba diving when you rise from lows you stop along the way to equalize the inert gases in your blood stream (otherwise your blood literally boils). Same thing happens as the economy and rates rise and we get rid of the FEDS “inert gas” also known as QE or liquidity. However, as in scuba diving if you go up to quickly, you get decompression sickness also known as “the bends.” In our economy, the bends are called a recession.

In the commercial real estate market, we have a similar problem. As rates rise, cap rates do too. This is because investors can now get higher and safer returns from CD’s, Bonds, and stocks so there becomes less demand causing cap rates to rise (you know – supply and demand). Cap rates rise, and price goes down. So, this is what it looks like as the economy gets better, but you lose value. The only way you can make up for this is increased rents (or lower expenses).

So, is it time to sell? Yes. No. Maybe. Yes, if you bought low and want to sell high, pay your taxes and do something else with your money. Yes, if you have a lot of debt and a drop-in value of 10% – 20% would wipe out most of or all of your equity. No, if you have long term stable tenants with room to raise rent over time and fixed rate financing in place. Maybe? – well there are lots of maybe reasons and that is why you need to call us to discuss.

Similarly, the housing market must see wage growth to keep up with the accelerated housing prices that have been occurring over recent years. Hourly earnings are up 2.7% but still behind the pre-2008 pace in the low 3’s. Wage pressure will come from low unemployment (down to 3.7% in San Diego from 6% in 2008) but just as importantly from the labor participation rate. We are at 82.1% but need to get over the pre-recession high at 83.2%.

In the meantime, Southern California home sales hit the brakes in June falling to the lowest reading in four years. Furthermore, pending home sales stepped back in July and have been falling for seven straight months. The biggest part of the problem is lack of availability of “affordable” housing. Sales below $500K dropped 21%, while deals over $500K only dropped 3%. This was due to lack of supply not demand. Higher rates will not make this problem any better (I’m starting to feel my blood boil).

So, this leads to my biggest worry, more people moving out than moving in – that is a recipe for commercial real estate value decreases. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, more than 42,000 San Diego residents left the area for the Inland Empire from 2000-2015, 9000 left for Phoenix.

San Diego only grew by 0.6 percent last year which is below the national average of 0.7 percent and lower than San Diego’s historic average of 1 percent. Almost all the growth was births over death. The strongest in-migration was people making over $100K (duh—they’re the only ones who can afford to live here). So, will San Diego be a castle on the hill with its work force commuting in from Riverside County and or across the Mexican border?

Another negative cloud on the horizon…the foreclosure rate rose for the first time in 36 months. On the positive front that 3.7% unemployment rate was highlighted by strength across all sectors since 10 years ago – Happy Labor Day!

  • Healthcare up 34,900 jobs
  • Tourism/Hospitality up 29,100 jobs
  • Government up 25,800 jobs
  • Science & Technology up 17,500 jobs
  • Management up 5,800 jobs

One other thing that is up in San Diego is telecommuting. Up almost 200% in the last 10 years. Carlsbad based, Global Workplace Analytics estimates that 65,000 San Diegans now work at least half of their hours from home.

I was out driving the market the other day and I couldn’t help but notice the number of church’s that have changed their names to things like, The Well, The Place, The Sanctuary, etc… I give them an “A+” for rebranding but the product is still the same as it has been for 2000+ years (which I think is a good thing). However, I look at McDonalds, Starbucks or In-N-Out and you see them adjust and refreshen but as in my opening paragraph, changing the name does not change the truth. Just look at IHOP…I mean IHOB.

At CDC Commercial, we aren’t planning on changing our name, we plan to keep telling you the truth and we try to remember that the market is ever changing, and the truth often seems illusive…hope you enjoy the story


The Cookie Thief 
by Valerie Cox

A woman was waiting at an airport one night, with several long hours before her flight. She hunted for a book in the airport shops, bought a bag of cookies and found a place to drop.

She was engrossed in her book but happened to see, that the man sitting beside her, as bold as could be. . .grabbed a cookie or two from the bag in between, which she tried to ignore to avoid a scene.

So, she munched the cookies and watched the clock, as the gutsy cookie thief diminished her stock. She was getting more irritated as the minutes ticked by, thinking, “If I wasn’t so nice, I would blacken his eye.”

With each cookie she took, he took one too, when only one was left, she wondered what he would do. With a smile on his face, and a nervous laugh, he took the last cookie and broke it in half.

He offered her half, as he ate the other, she snatched it from him and thought… oooh, brother. This guy has some nerve and he’s also rude, why he didn’t even show any gratitude!

She had never known when she had been so galled and sighed with relief when her flight was called. She gathered her belongings and headed to the gate, refusing to look back at the thieving ingrate.

She boarded the plane, and sank in her seat, then she sought her book, which was almost complete. As she reached in her baggage, she gasped with surprise, there was her bag of cookies, in front of her eyes.

If mine are here, she moaned in despair, the others were his, and he tried to share. Too late to apologize, she realized with grief, that she was the rude one, the ingrate, the thief.

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It seems that Jeff Bezos has experienced the same problem as many Amazon customers with having Echo ordering inappropriately:

Scene: Amazon’s Jeff Bezos’ trendy home earlier this month. He’s talking to his Echo.
Bezos: “Find me something to buy at Whole Foods.”
Echo: “Okay, buying Whole Foods.”

Bezos: “Oops.”

Amazon is killing a lot of businesses. In the process, it may also be killing inflation – they are squeezing prices of everything through their automation and efficiencies. Both factors that are bound to hurt commercial real estate. Although all of the focus this month has been on the Whole Foods purchase (never mind that Whole Foods has less than 3% of the grocery market), I think the breaking news was the roll out of Amazon Prime Wardrobe. Here the online retailer attacks the biggest problems of buying clothes; (1) the time it takes to shop, (2) the hassle of finding the right size, (3) returning stuff you don’t want (comes with pre-labeled return but you get a discount if you keep it all).
As we enter the second half of the year, I would like to take an assessment of where we stand and share some interesting data that I am seeing. First, I will tell you that we continue to be busy and are not experiencing any slowdown. Interest rate bumps have not affected most of our day to day investor/buyers. However, the think tanks and big data are pointing to a “slow-motion slow-down.” Low unemployment is generally good for commercial real estate (more workers – more space).
However, too low makes it tough to expand without a pool of workers. Slowing job growth may be the catalyst for the slowdown. E-commerce will continue to bring retail to its knees. Interest rates will continue to tick up which will put upward pressure on cap rates (and lower prices). With cap rates at record lows (I saw a 3.5% cap on a property in NYC!) it is hard to believe that there is much room for commercial real estate prices to run.
A couple of charts below help to illustrate my concerns.
commercial property price index
total deal volume by sector

(PRNewsfoto/Ten-X)

consumer board consumer confidence index

If you really like charts, numbers and big data then you will really enjoy the Cycle Monitor by Dividend Capital Research and Glenn Mueller, PHD.

While recessions are inevitable, it will not be anywhere near the disaster of 2008 (and we probably won’t start seeing the “slow-motion, slow-down” until 2018). Rather we will more likely see a prolonged flat period. The recession of 2007-2009 was the closest thing to the great depression. My guess is the next recession will be more modest. Commercial real estate has nowhere near the excesses that were built up in the mid 2000’s. In the meantime, low unemployment, low cap rates, low vacancy rates, head down, work hard and enjoy the ride. Hope you enjoy the story…
Jeff Bezo’s Email to Employees on Amazon’s Purchase of Whole Foods
by Ryan Garcia
Team;
Today is a significant milestone in the evolution of the Amazon brand. Our offer to purchase Whole Foods will finally consolidate the largest online and off-line retailers where consumers end up spending way more than they intended. I actually didn’t even mean to buy Whole Foods but after downing a few too many boilermakers at the Echo mixer last night, I accidentally clicked BUY IT NOW instead of just putting the grocery chain in my cart for future consideration.
Oh well, you know what they say-you can’t log off Amazon without spending $13.7 billion. So true!
Further details about the merger will be forthcoming, but I wanted to call out a few major points before we have to go silent and get this approved by regulators.
  • Our corporate cultures or perfectly aligned. The New York Times revealed that every Amazon employee has cried at their desk, and I personally made a Whole Foods employee cry when they couldn’t correctly identify their process for ensuring single-source coffee beans throughout the roasting process. It was an uncomfortable 38 minutes for both of us, but I think an experience so many of you can relate to.
  • Improved Echo functionality. Whole Foods has maintained a laser-like focus on organic foods and sustainable facilities and I’m excited to bring that same vision to Echo. Starting next week, when customers ask their Echo to order non-organic food products that receive a 12-minute lecture on the benefits of organic and local source products while our top-notch product matching software will send them the closest available organic item. Users on our website will find the “Customers Also Bought…” section replacing unhealthy items with notes such as, “Cookies That Went Straight to Their Thighs” and “Beef Produced By Clearcutting Rain Forest.” Needless to say, those products will not be available for purchase.
  • Drone changes. All Amazon drone teams will immediately switch to bio-fuels rather than battery packs.
  • Senior leadership. Once the acquisition is complete, John Mackey will take a new position as financial analyst and social media community outreach for the Washington Post. Synergy!
  • Location changes. Since Whole Foods is headquartered in Austin, Texas, I’ve asked EM to build the first hyperloop route between our offices here in Seattle and the Blue Bubble of Texas. All Amazon/Whole Foods employees Will office in Austin for the one week of good weather they have in late February, and in Seattle for the one week of sunshine we have an August (or May… or October… or whenever). The remaining 50 weeks of the year are up to you. Because I believe all Amazon employees should be free to cry at their desk no matter where that desk is located.
  • Product expansions. Amazon will soon carry all of the 365-branded products Whole Foods has developed in all Whole Foods stores we’ll be adding aisles for garden equipment, household electronics, sportswear, handbags, pet supplies, golf clubs, video games, plumbing supplies, luggage, headphones, and climbing gear. To start.
  • Cruelty free. We will be adopting Whole Foods policy of only purchasing products that are certified cruelty free. Please note this does not apply to any software we developed ourselves.
I am beyond excited by the possibilities of this merger moving forward and I hope the team feels the same. The combination of our two companies will account for over 85% of all hipster purchases in the United States. I’m looking forward to capturing the remaining 15%.
Now, I need your daily status updates and you aren’t excused for being late for reading this.
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According to her biography, Barbara Millicent Roberts grew up in the mythical town of Willows, Wisconsin. For a period of time she attended Willows High School but later moved on to Manhattan International High School in New York City. Over the years, she has had more than 40 pets including cats, dogs, various horses, a zebra, a lion cub, and a panda. She has held dozens of professional positions including doctor, pilot, astronaut, veterinarian, and flight attendant. Her taste in cars is legendary. Her favorite color is bright pink. That color has become known as Barbie Pink. On March 9th, the folks at Mattel celebrated Barbara Millicent “Barbie” Roberts’ 58th birthday. No matter what you think about this cultural icon, you have to admit that she’s looking good for her age.

The ubiquitous Barbie doll made its debut on March 9, 1959, at a toy fair in New York City. She was an instant hit. About 350,000 dolls were sold in the first year of production. Since then, it is estimated that more than a billion Barbies have been sold worldwide.

Negotiating the emotional minefield between whims and dreams is a difficult task for any parent (or consumer for that matter). The marketing machines of companies flash shiny objects in our eyes forcing us to make tough decisions, ones that don’t always leave us happy, satisfied or popular.

I once read that in a grocery store there are over 100 salad dressing choices. With so many to choose from we are never able to be satisfied since we can’t try all of them. Whereas with only 3 or 4 choices we can be sure of our favorite. Could this be the root of IN-N-OUT Burgers grand success?

I remember a bumper sticker that used to say “I want to be like Barbie…that bitch has everything.” Well before you become rich you must decide whether you want to be secure, comfortable, or rich. These are called core values, or the reasons you want to invest.

The first reason most people invest is because they want to feel more secure That’s why Social Security or a retirement plan is very popular with people whose core value is the need for security. Security is a very important aspect of investing. You don’t want to be a destitute out on the streets with nobody taking care of you.

Unfortunately, many people who are counting on government or their employer to provide for their retirement will be sorely disappointed. A person who invests to be secure or values security will always say, “Well, I have to have a roof over my head and I need to put food on my table.” Their whole orientation is security or survival.

The next level above security is to be comfortable. They say, “I just want…” They want the house, the second vacation house, or the extra car. They want to take a cruise every now and then. Their highest priority is the need to be comfortable.

The third core value that motivates people is wanting to be rich. Most people dream of becoming rich but if the dream of becoming rich disturbs any of the lower core value of security or comfort, they’ll forsake being rich.

They’ll dream of being rich but if it means giving up a safe, secure job, then being rich remains a dream. If it’s just too much trouble to become rich and they’re comfortable at the moment, then they won’t pursue becoming rich. Those are the three core emotional reasons why certain people chose certain investment paths. Money is just an idea. It’s a formulation of the mental, emotional, and spiritual ideas inside of you that determine what you ultimately become. In the end, you need to fight for the future you want.

Today Big Data is to commerce what oil was in the past. Data helps retailers interpret what consumers will buy and when and for how much. The data comes from everywhere. Indoor tracking systems like Bluetooth beacons or Philips lighting or facial recognition. From web browsing and app use. From transaction data aggregated by Visa and MasterCard. Even from Uber, who knows that riders spent 2 billion directly after getting out of an Uber. How about the father who got a call congratulating him on becoming a grandfather before his daughter told him she was pregnant – all courtesy of Big Data and browsing history!

In 1890, Samuel Warren wrote a paper called, “The Right to Privacy” and in it he cited “recent inventions and business methods” – including instant photography and tabloid gossip – “have invaded the sacred precincts of private domestic life.” In the paper, they called for the “right to be left alone” and what they called, “the right to one’s personality.”

Although technology may be making our lives more public than we want, loneliness seems to be an epidemic. The number of Americans who say they have no close friends has nearly tripled in the last decade. While technology offers us an easy way to keep in contact with friends and meet new people, technology encourages shallow conversations that can distract us from meaningful, real life interactions. Smartphones have transformed grocery lines from a chance for small talk with neighbors to an exercise in email checking. Starbucks has sealed the fate of the coffee shop as nothing more than a place of mutual isolation.

So what does this have to do with commercial real estate? Shopping centers? Office buildings? Well let me tell you. Successful real estate in the future is social real estate. Location, location, location brings new meaning in a social setting. The best location is where people will want to live, work and play. Shopping centers will be social centers.

Although you may buy your Barbie dolls now on Amazon, most of you still go to the grocery store to buy your groceries. The grocery store has been largely immune to the ravages of online shopping. But a war is coming. Beside the current intense competition of Vons, Ralphs, Wal-Mart, Target and Costco, you have the growth of niche players like Trader Joe’s, Whole Foods, and Sprouts. Soon you will see the growth of ALDI, LIDL and Grocery Outlet. Not to be outdone, Amazon is stepping up its grocery delivery business and is now rolling out stores that will just deduct your purchase from your credit card as your walk out the door – no cashier needed. To make things harder, struggling brick and mortar retailers such as dollar stores and pharmacies have increased their inventory of grocery items (can you image Amazon buying Rite-Aid or CVS? Amazon delivering your drugs and an Amazon store on every corner.)

Like the grocery business, our activity has increased but business has gotten harder to close. Although we are working hard to get rich we are trying to be happy being satisfied. We have ventured into the Big Data market and done a Barbie analysis of the San Diego market (I apologize ahead if you or your neighborhood is insulted).

San Diego Barbie from KGB Bob and Coe Show

La Costa Barbie – this princess Barbie is only sold at the brand new La Costa Forum. She comes with an assortment of Kate Spade handbags, a Lexus SUV, a long-haired dog named Honey, and a cookie-cutter house. Available with or without tummy tuck and face lift. Workaholic Ken sold only in conjunction with “augmented” version.

Rancho Bernardo Barbie – this modern-day homemaker Barbie is available with Ford Windstar minivan and matching gym outfit. She gets lost easily and has no full-time occupation or secondary education. Traffic-jamming cell phone included, headset sold separately.

Escondido Barbie – this recently paroled tattooed and nose pierced Barbie comes with a 9mm handgun, a desert/river ready lifted Chevy truck with dark tinted windows, and a methlab kit. This model is only available after dark and can only be paid for in cash, preferable in small, untraceable bills. Unless you are a cop, then we don’t know what you’re talking about.

Del Mar Barbie – this yuppie Barbie comes with your choice of BMW convertible or Hummer H2. Included are her own Starbucks cup, credit card, and a country club membership. Also available for this set are Shallow Ken and Private School Skipper. You won’t be able to afford any of them.

Santee Barbie – this pale model comes dressed in her own Wrangler Jeans, two sizes too small, a NASCAR shirt, and Tweety Bird tattoo on her shoulder. She has a six-pack of Coors Light and a Hank Williams, Jr CD set. She can spit over 5 feet and kick mullet-haired Ken’s ass when she is drunk. Purchase her pickup truck separately and get a confederate flag bumper sticker absolutely free.

La Jolla Barbie – this collagen injected, rhinoplastic Barbie wears a leopard-print bikini outfit and drinks cosmopolitans while entertaining friends at the beach house. Percocet prescription available.

Lakeside Barbie – this tobacco-chewing, brassy-haired Barbie has a pair of her own high-heeled sandals with one broken heel from the time she chased Beer-Gut Ken out of Lemon Grove Barbie’s house. Her ensemble includes low-rise acid-washed jeans, fake fingernails, and a see-through halter top. Also available with a mobile home.

Leucadia Barbie – this doll is made of actual tofu. She has long, straight, brown hair, archless feet, hairy armpits, no makeup, and Birkenstocks with white socks. She smokes good sinsemilla buds and prefers that you call her “Willow.” She does not want or need a Ken doll, but if you purchase two Leucadia Barbies and the optional Volvo wagon, you get a coupon for a free wheat-grass smoothie at any Whole Foods Market.

National City Barbie – this Barbie now comes with a stroller and infant doll. Optional accessories include a GED and bus and trolley pass. Gangsta Ken and his ’79 Caddy were available, but are now very difficult to find since the addition of the infant.

Chula Vista Barbie – this Spanish-speaking-only Barbie comes with a 1984 Toyota with expired temporary plates and three baby Barbies in the back seat, but no car seats. The optional Ken doll comes with a pickup truck loaded 10-feet high with mattresses. Green cards are not available for Chula Vista Barbie or Ken.

Hillcrest Barbie/Ken – this versatile doll can be easily converted from Barbie to Ken by simply adding or subtracting the multiple “snap-on” parts. Bonus: free rainbow flag with proof of purchase sticker.

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