Don Zech

The Empire State Building in New York City played a prominent role in the movie Sleepless in Seattle with Meg Ryan (The queen of rom-coms When Harry Met Sally and You’ve Got Mail). This year on Valentines Day, more than 15 couples will take (or renew) their vows on the

“The line separating investment and speculation, which is never bright and clear, becomes blurred still further when most market participants have recently enjoyed triumphs. Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money. After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of

A woman goes into the post office to buy stamps for her Christmas cards. “What denomination?” the clerk asked. “Oh, good heavens! Have we come to this?” the woman asks. “Well, give me 50 Catholics and 50 Baptists.” Explaining the state of the economy at the moment is a conundrum.

Wow! Did no one else notice… or care that Fitch Ratings downgraded the U.S.A.’s long-term foreign currency default rating from AAA to AA+? Their reason? Erosion of governance. Rising general government deficits. Debt to GDP. The economy slipping into recession. Fed tightening. Need I say more? So, I am thinking

I don’t know if anyone else saw the irony in it, but I had to chuckle when I read that Zoom is calling its workers back to the office for the first time since the pandemic. First, let me assure you that the world is not coming to an end.

The economic slowdown is now underway and inflation rates, though moderating, are still too high. The monetary policy trilemma (is that even a word?) of price stability vs financial market stability vs economic support is now a reality. The Fed just increased interest rates another ¼ percent and bank regulators

We are in the late stage of a long-term debt cycle. Debt has become so high it is difficult to give lender-creditors a high enough interest rate relative to inflation to make them want to hold this debt as an asset without making the rates so high that it hurts

“The early bird may get the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese in the trap.” The lower the interest rate, the easier it is to justify marginal projects toward the end of a business cycle when only cheap money gets the deal done. Thus, that is why commercial