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4th of JulyThe tune of the National Anthem was originally used as an English drinking song called “To Anacreon in Heaven.” Cheers…and Happy 4th of July!

U.S. economic growth depends heavily on the performance of individual states. California, for instance, in 2017 was the fifth largest economy in the world, boasting a GDP larger than that of the U.K., France, and India according to Wallet Hub.

Although nationally our inflation rate seems to be tame, San Diego has risen by 3.8% over the last 12 months and a full 1 percent over the last two months. This is largely due to an increase in the cost of gasoline. And that is before the 5.6 cents per gallon gas tax hitting today (July 1, 2019). If you believe that reported inflation doesn’t accurately reflect real inflation, you might want to visit; http://www.chapwoodindex.com/.

Good news! San Diego’s unemployment rate logged in at 2.8%, the lowest rate in a decade.

Although the next two trends are affecting residential real estate, I think they are noteworthy and could easily be seen in the commercial realm.

Just when you think things in Los Angeles could be any more dysfunctional, they take the cake again! The City Council has proposed a new tax on property owners for leaving a home vacant.

LeaseLock a new Fintech company is offering a new technology that would eliminate security deposits for multifamily rentals. It decreases move-in costs and accelerates the leasing cycle which increases occupancy rates. Think of it as an electronic surety bond.

Trade dispute tensions, a slowing global and U.S. economy and rising tension in the Middle East have caused a flight to treasuries and a drop-in rate. The Fed has signaled possible rate cuts. All this bodes well for commercial real estate and financing. First, if you didn’t refinance before now might be a good time to do so. To give you an idea as to rates here’s a quick snip of a recent quote:

$1mm + staring at:

5 year fixed – 4.5%
7 year fixed – 4.6%
10 year fixed – 4.7%
Up to 75% LTV
25-30-year amortization

With rates remaining low, it’s still a good time to look at acquisition. However, the reason for investing now shouldn’t be because of FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out). Money mistakes are a fact of life. According to a recent survey, 78% of Americans confessed to making a least one financial gaffe. These are always bad, but in a commercial real estate deal, this could easily cost millions of dollars. Here is a list of common mistakes and some strategies to sidestep them.

  1. Insist on a margin of Safety – in other words, don’t buy at fair market value but instead expect things to not live up to expectations.
  2. This time is NEVER different – the four most dangerous words in investing are “this time is different.” When you hear those four magic words – get out!
  3. Don’t go it alone – you probably got your money from being smart and exerting some special skills. When you buy real estate have a team to help with; real estate law, taxes, insurance, leasing, and property management.
  4. Don’t invest in something you don’t understand – don’t be at the mercy of your advisors. Fully understand the concept of your investment and be confident you are investing wisely.
  5. Be leery of leverage – leverage is a two-edged sword; it increases your returns and it increases your risk.
  6. Understand the local market – get the local newspaper or newsfeed. (I met a medical building investor who bought next to a hospital that was closing!). Know the local price per square foot comparisons, cap rates, commercial construction activity, zoning regulations, and economic growth. Have a local broker who knows and can help with that (Hint hint).

With #6 above in mind, I would like to re-introduce “Nick’s Numbers.”

Hello all, I would like to take a section of the monthly letter each month and give you some current data about a specific city or other trends that I think you may find informative and/or educational. This month, I will start with a summary overview of Escondido’s retail, office, and industrial property categories. ~ Nick

ESCONDIDO

Retail

Escondido Retail

Office

Escondido Office

Industrial

Escondido Industrial

Please give me a call or email me if you would like more in-depth info on Escondido or other San Diego and North County sub-markets (Nick Zech, 858-232-2100, nzech@cdccommercial.com).

I hope you all have a great 4th of July and enjoy beautiful San Diego. You can quiz your friends around the BBQ to see who is a real San Diegan . . .


YOU KNOW YOU’RE FROM SAN DIEGO WHEN;

  1. You can correctly pronounce Tierrasanta, La Jolla, Rancho Penasquitos, San Ysidro, Otay Mesa, Jamul, and El Cajon, and know where they are.
  2. There are four distinct seasons: Summer, Not Quite Summer, Almost Summer, and oh, hey look its summer again.
  3. Your house is worth more than some small countries.
  4. You know what MB, OB, and PB stand for.
  5. Every street name is either in Spanish or Spanish related, and you’re surprised when other areas don’t have this.
  6. You see weather forecasts for four different climate zones in the same county and aren’t remotely surprised.
  7. You remember going to “The Cross” on Mt. Helix for Easter services. 60 degrees is COLD!
  8. You’ve tailgated at Qualcomm Stadium, and for bonus points, also tailgated when it was Jack Murphy Stadium.
  9. You know that “charge!” doesn’t refer to a credit card.
  10. You remember going downtown via Federal Blvd. before Hwy 94 was built.
  11. You remember when Hwy 94 was 2 lanes in each direction.
  12. You still call it the Del Mar Fair.
  13. You say, “I’m going to the track” and people know what you’re talking about.
  14. You remember when Lemon Grove, La Mesa, and Spring Valley were “in the sticks.”
  15. You understand what May-gray and June-gloom mean.
  16. There’s a North County, South County, and an East County but no Central County.
  17. You know what “the merge” is and will plan your entire day around not being on it during rush hour.
  18. You know the difference between Clairmont Mesa, Kearny Mesa, and Mira Mesa.
  19. You’ve gone to Sea World on a warm day and sat in the first few rows at the Shamu Show to get cooled off.
  20. You’ve been delayed at the Border Checkpoints on the 5, the 8 and the 15.
  21. Your house doesn’t have or need air conditioning unless you live in the East County.
  22. No matter what the weather is, there is always someone walking around in a t-shirt, shorts, and flip flops.
  23. You’ve been to the desert, the mountains, and the beach all in one day.
  24. You know that Santee and Lakeside are where the “cowboys” live.
  25. You hate tourists and their bad driving. (But you don’t know how to drive in the rain.) 26. You’ve gone to the Zoo just to hang out.
  26. You have family or friends that have moved to Arizona, Nevada, Utah or Colorado.
  27. You know what the “Santa Anas” are and that they have nothing to do with the city of Santa Ana.
  28. You know what “real Mexican food” tastes like.
  29. You remember when “Mission Valley” was cow pastures (Oh… to have bought land then!)
  30. You remember when Lemon Grove had “the cows.”

    ❤️

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It seems that Jeff Bezos has experienced the same problem as many Amazon customers with having Echo ordering inappropriately:

Scene: Amazon’s Jeff Bezos’ trendy home earlier this month. He’s talking to his Echo.
Bezos: “Find me something to buy at Whole Foods.”
Echo: “Okay, buying Whole Foods.”

Bezos: “Oops.”

Amazon is killing a lot of businesses. In the process, it may also be killing inflation – they are squeezing prices of everything through their automation and efficiencies. Both factors that are bound to hurt commercial real estate. Although all of the focus this month has been on the Whole Foods purchase (never mind that Whole Foods has less than 3% of the grocery market), I think the breaking news was the roll out of Amazon Prime Wardrobe. Here the online retailer attacks the biggest problems of buying clothes; (1) the time it takes to shop, (2) the hassle of finding the right size, (3) returning stuff you don’t want (comes with pre-labeled return but you get a discount if you keep it all).
As we enter the second half of the year, I would like to take an assessment of where we stand and share some interesting data that I am seeing. First, I will tell you that we continue to be busy and are not experiencing any slowdown. Interest rate bumps have not affected most of our day to day investor/buyers. However, the think tanks and big data are pointing to a “slow-motion slow-down.” Low unemployment is generally good for commercial real estate (more workers – more space).
However, too low makes it tough to expand without a pool of workers. Slowing job growth may be the catalyst for the slowdown. E-commerce will continue to bring retail to its knees. Interest rates will continue to tick up which will put upward pressure on cap rates (and lower prices). With cap rates at record lows (I saw a 3.5% cap on a property in NYC!) it is hard to believe that there is much room for commercial real estate prices to run.
A couple of charts below help to illustrate my concerns.
commercial property price index
total deal volume by sector

(PRNewsfoto/Ten-X)

consumer board consumer confidence index

If you really like charts, numbers and big data then you will really enjoy the Cycle Monitor by Dividend Capital Research and Glenn Mueller, PHD.

While recessions are inevitable, it will not be anywhere near the disaster of 2008 (and we probably won’t start seeing the “slow-motion, slow-down” until 2018). Rather we will more likely see a prolonged flat period. The recession of 2007-2009 was the closest thing to the great depression. My guess is the next recession will be more modest. Commercial real estate has nowhere near the excesses that were built up in the mid 2000’s. In the meantime, low unemployment, low cap rates, low vacancy rates, head down, work hard and enjoy the ride. Hope you enjoy the story…
Jeff Bezo’s Email to Employees on Amazon’s Purchase of Whole Foods
by Ryan Garcia
Team;
Today is a significant milestone in the evolution of the Amazon brand. Our offer to purchase Whole Foods will finally consolidate the largest online and off-line retailers where consumers end up spending way more than they intended. I actually didn’t even mean to buy Whole Foods but after downing a few too many boilermakers at the Echo mixer last night, I accidentally clicked BUY IT NOW instead of just putting the grocery chain in my cart for future consideration.
Oh well, you know what they say-you can’t log off Amazon without spending $13.7 billion. So true!
Further details about the merger will be forthcoming, but I wanted to call out a few major points before we have to go silent and get this approved by regulators.
  • Our corporate cultures or perfectly aligned. The New York Times revealed that every Amazon employee has cried at their desk, and I personally made a Whole Foods employee cry when they couldn’t correctly identify their process for ensuring single-source coffee beans throughout the roasting process. It was an uncomfortable 38 minutes for both of us, but I think an experience so many of you can relate to.
  • Improved Echo functionality. Whole Foods has maintained a laser-like focus on organic foods and sustainable facilities and I’m excited to bring that same vision to Echo. Starting next week, when customers ask their Echo to order non-organic food products that receive a 12-minute lecture on the benefits of organic and local source products while our top-notch product matching software will send them the closest available organic item. Users on our website will find the “Customers Also Bought…” section replacing unhealthy items with notes such as, “Cookies That Went Straight to Their Thighs” and “Beef Produced By Clearcutting Rain Forest.” Needless to say, those products will not be available for purchase.
  • Drone changes. All Amazon drone teams will immediately switch to bio-fuels rather than battery packs.
  • Senior leadership. Once the acquisition is complete, John Mackey will take a new position as financial analyst and social media community outreach for the Washington Post. Synergy!
  • Location changes. Since Whole Foods is headquartered in Austin, Texas, I’ve asked EM to build the first hyperloop route between our offices here in Seattle and the Blue Bubble of Texas. All Amazon/Whole Foods employees Will office in Austin for the one week of good weather they have in late February, and in Seattle for the one week of sunshine we have an August (or May… or October… or whenever). The remaining 50 weeks of the year are up to you. Because I believe all Amazon employees should be free to cry at their desk no matter where that desk is located.
  • Product expansions. Amazon will soon carry all of the 365-branded products Whole Foods has developed in all Whole Foods stores we’ll be adding aisles for garden equipment, household electronics, sportswear, handbags, pet supplies, golf clubs, video games, plumbing supplies, luggage, headphones, and climbing gear. To start.
  • Cruelty free. We will be adopting Whole Foods policy of only purchasing products that are certified cruelty free. Please note this does not apply to any software we developed ourselves.
I am beyond excited by the possibilities of this merger moving forward and I hope the team feels the same. The combination of our two companies will account for over 85% of all hipster purchases in the United States. I’m looking forward to capturing the remaining 15%.
Now, I need your daily status updates and you aren’t excused for being late for reading this.
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According to her biography, Barbara Millicent Roberts grew up in the mythical town of Willows, Wisconsin. For a period of time she attended Willows High School but later moved on to Manhattan International High School in New York City. Over the years, she has had more than 40 pets including cats, dogs, various horses, a zebra, a lion cub, and a panda. She has held dozens of professional positions including doctor, pilot, astronaut, veterinarian, and flight attendant. Her taste in cars is legendary. Her favorite color is bright pink. That color has become known as Barbie Pink. On March 9th, the folks at Mattel celebrated Barbara Millicent “Barbie” Roberts’ 58th birthday. No matter what you think about this cultural icon, you have to admit that she’s looking good for her age.

The ubiquitous Barbie doll made its debut on March 9, 1959, at a toy fair in New York City. She was an instant hit. About 350,000 dolls were sold in the first year of production. Since then, it is estimated that more than a billion Barbies have been sold worldwide.

Negotiating the emotional minefield between whims and dreams is a difficult task for any parent (or consumer for that matter). The marketing machines of companies flash shiny objects in our eyes forcing us to make tough decisions, ones that don’t always leave us happy, satisfied or popular.

I once read that in a grocery store there are over 100 salad dressing choices. With so many to choose from we are never able to be satisfied since we can’t try all of them. Whereas with only 3 or 4 choices we can be sure of our favorite. Could this be the root of IN-N-OUT Burgers grand success?

I remember a bumper sticker that used to say “I want to be like Barbie…that bitch has everything.” Well before you become rich you must decide whether you want to be secure, comfortable, or rich. These are called core values, or the reasons you want to invest.

The first reason most people invest is because they want to feel more secure That’s why Social Security or a retirement plan is very popular with people whose core value is the need for security. Security is a very important aspect of investing. You don’t want to be a destitute out on the streets with nobody taking care of you.

Unfortunately, many people who are counting on government or their employer to provide for their retirement will be sorely disappointed. A person who invests to be secure or values security will always say, “Well, I have to have a roof over my head and I need to put food on my table.” Their whole orientation is security or survival.

The next level above security is to be comfortable. They say, “I just want…” They want the house, the second vacation house, or the extra car. They want to take a cruise every now and then. Their highest priority is the need to be comfortable.

The third core value that motivates people is wanting to be rich. Most people dream of becoming rich but if the dream of becoming rich disturbs any of the lower core value of security or comfort, they’ll forsake being rich.

They’ll dream of being rich but if it means giving up a safe, secure job, then being rich remains a dream. If it’s just too much trouble to become rich and they’re comfortable at the moment, then they won’t pursue becoming rich. Those are the three core emotional reasons why certain people chose certain investment paths. Money is just an idea. It’s a formulation of the mental, emotional, and spiritual ideas inside of you that determine what you ultimately become. In the end, you need to fight for the future you want.

Today Big Data is to commerce what oil was in the past. Data helps retailers interpret what consumers will buy and when and for how much. The data comes from everywhere. Indoor tracking systems like Bluetooth beacons or Philips lighting or facial recognition. From web browsing and app use. From transaction data aggregated by Visa and MasterCard. Even from Uber, who knows that riders spent 2 billion directly after getting out of an Uber. How about the father who got a call congratulating him on becoming a grandfather before his daughter told him she was pregnant – all courtesy of Big Data and browsing history!

In 1890, Samuel Warren wrote a paper called, “The Right to Privacy” and in it he cited “recent inventions and business methods” – including instant photography and tabloid gossip – “have invaded the sacred precincts of private domestic life.” In the paper, they called for the “right to be left alone” and what they called, “the right to one’s personality.”

Although technology may be making our lives more public than we want, loneliness seems to be an epidemic. The number of Americans who say they have no close friends has nearly tripled in the last decade. While technology offers us an easy way to keep in contact with friends and meet new people, technology encourages shallow conversations that can distract us from meaningful, real life interactions. Smartphones have transformed grocery lines from a chance for small talk with neighbors to an exercise in email checking. Starbucks has sealed the fate of the coffee shop as nothing more than a place of mutual isolation.

So what does this have to do with commercial real estate? Shopping centers? Office buildings? Well let me tell you. Successful real estate in the future is social real estate. Location, location, location brings new meaning in a social setting. The best location is where people will want to live, work and play. Shopping centers will be social centers.

Although you may buy your Barbie dolls now on Amazon, most of you still go to the grocery store to buy your groceries. The grocery store has been largely immune to the ravages of online shopping. But a war is coming. Beside the current intense competition of Vons, Ralphs, Wal-Mart, Target and Costco, you have the growth of niche players like Trader Joe’s, Whole Foods, and Sprouts. Soon you will see the growth of ALDI, LIDL and Grocery Outlet. Not to be outdone, Amazon is stepping up its grocery delivery business and is now rolling out stores that will just deduct your purchase from your credit card as your walk out the door – no cashier needed. To make things harder, struggling brick and mortar retailers such as dollar stores and pharmacies have increased their inventory of grocery items (can you image Amazon buying Rite-Aid or CVS? Amazon delivering your drugs and an Amazon store on every corner.)

Like the grocery business, our activity has increased but business has gotten harder to close. Although we are working hard to get rich we are trying to be happy being satisfied. We have ventured into the Big Data market and done a Barbie analysis of the San Diego market (I apologize ahead if you or your neighborhood is insulted).

San Diego Barbie from KGB Bob and Coe Show

La Costa Barbie – this princess Barbie is only sold at the brand new La Costa Forum. She comes with an assortment of Kate Spade handbags, a Lexus SUV, a long-haired dog named Honey, and a cookie-cutter house. Available with or without tummy tuck and face lift. Workaholic Ken sold only in conjunction with “augmented” version.

Rancho Bernardo Barbie – this modern-day homemaker Barbie is available with Ford Windstar minivan and matching gym outfit. She gets lost easily and has no full-time occupation or secondary education. Traffic-jamming cell phone included, headset sold separately.

Escondido Barbie – this recently paroled tattooed and nose pierced Barbie comes with a 9mm handgun, a desert/river ready lifted Chevy truck with dark tinted windows, and a methlab kit. This model is only available after dark and can only be paid for in cash, preferable in small, untraceable bills. Unless you are a cop, then we don’t know what you’re talking about.

Del Mar Barbie – this yuppie Barbie comes with your choice of BMW convertible or Hummer H2. Included are her own Starbucks cup, credit card, and a country club membership. Also available for this set are Shallow Ken and Private School Skipper. You won’t be able to afford any of them.

Santee Barbie – this pale model comes dressed in her own Wrangler Jeans, two sizes too small, a NASCAR shirt, and Tweety Bird tattoo on her shoulder. She has a six-pack of Coors Light and a Hank Williams, Jr CD set. She can spit over 5 feet and kick mullet-haired Ken’s ass when she is drunk. Purchase her pickup truck separately and get a confederate flag bumper sticker absolutely free.

La Jolla Barbie – this collagen injected, rhinoplastic Barbie wears a leopard-print bikini outfit and drinks cosmopolitans while entertaining friends at the beach house. Percocet prescription available.

Lakeside Barbie – this tobacco-chewing, brassy-haired Barbie has a pair of her own high-heeled sandals with one broken heel from the time she chased Beer-Gut Ken out of Lemon Grove Barbie’s house. Her ensemble includes low-rise acid-washed jeans, fake fingernails, and a see-through halter top. Also available with a mobile home.

Leucadia Barbie – this doll is made of actual tofu. She has long, straight, brown hair, archless feet, hairy armpits, no makeup, and Birkenstocks with white socks. She smokes good sinsemilla buds and prefers that you call her “Willow.” She does not want or need a Ken doll, but if you purchase two Leucadia Barbies and the optional Volvo wagon, you get a coupon for a free wheat-grass smoothie at any Whole Foods Market.

National City Barbie – this Barbie now comes with a stroller and infant doll. Optional accessories include a GED and bus and trolley pass. Gangsta Ken and his ’79 Caddy were available, but are now very difficult to find since the addition of the infant.

Chula Vista Barbie – this Spanish-speaking-only Barbie comes with a 1984 Toyota with expired temporary plates and three baby Barbies in the back seat, but no car seats. The optional Ken doll comes with a pickup truck loaded 10-feet high with mattresses. Green cards are not available for Chula Vista Barbie or Ken.

Hillcrest Barbie/Ken – this versatile doll can be easily converted from Barbie to Ken by simply adding or subtracting the multiple “snap-on” parts. Bonus: free rainbow flag with proof of purchase sticker.

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