CDC Commercial Inc

April 2014 Monthly Letter

Did you ever notice that when you put together the two words “The” and “IRS” it spells “Theirs…”?

In February, mother nature shut down Washington’s government offices for a day, but the extreme weather was no match for federal regulators. In the first two months of the year, the Federal Registry has mushroomed to 9079 pages! At this rate it will take an additional 80,000 employees working full time to complete the additional paperwork! I often wonder when we will hit the wall (paper or otherwise).

The Federal Reserve reports that “there is sufficient underlying strength in the economy to support ongoing improvement in the labor market.” Janet Yellen testified that it should be done winding down its stimulus measures by September and could see raising rates by this time next year.

Meanwhile, San Diego’s unemployment rate appears to have hit  a wall at 7%, however, it gained 9500 jobs in February, indicating that more people are returning to the workforce. Part of that returning work force may be because San Diego has been cited as the top city in the U.S. for launching a start up according to Forbes Magazine. Overall, Forbes predicted a revitalization of small business nationwide. Additionally, San Diego was ranked third in the nation for top biotech region by Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology news. This improvement to the job market comes despite three high profile companies shedding workers. Cox Communications laid off 500 people, Sony trimmed 400 jobs locally and Websense is moving to Texas with it 470 jobs. Seems like we are pushing against the wall but it’s not moving much. Lately I have been telling people that things are better today than yesterday and better this year than last. I don’t feel like we are pushing the rock up the hill each day, only to start at the bottom each time we stop. Now it is more like we are pushing  on the level and the next day the rock is where we left it.

Speaking of moving rocks and building walls, housing’s share of the GDP was 15.3%. Keep In mind housing is one thing that is still “Made in America”. This 15.3% compares to a 17% or 18% “normal” or average number. The good news through is where the GDP has grown about 4.7% over the last two years, the RFI (residential fixed investment) has grown by 22.8%. (so it is coming back fast!)

One wall I am concerned we are hitting is the stock market. Although this is not my market area of expertise, the dividend yield curve indicates an overpriced market and a correction in the offing. My bigger concern is the impact that has on pocketbooks and tenants in the market place and our fragile recovery.

Well in an attempt to be more “social” and to give clients more insight and regular market updates, I have joined the Twitter universe (@cdccommercial ). If you Twitter (or even if you don’t – just Google Don Zech Twitter) and please follow me. This is an easy way for me to “tweet” links to relative news or articles or more importantly, answer the constant question of “how is the market”. It’s kind of my way of posting updates to the wall. Speaking of walls, I hope you enjoy this months story.

The Wall

A lady CNN journalist heard about a very old Jewish man who had been going to the Western Wall to pray, twice a day, every day, for a long, long time.

So she went to check it out. She went to the Western Wall and there he was, walking slowly up to the holy site.

She watched him pray and after about 45 minutes, when he turned to leave, using a cane and moving very slowly, she approached him for an interview.

“Pardon me, sir, I’m Rebecca Smith from CNN. What’s your name?

“Morris Feinberg,” he replied.

“Sir, how long have you been coming to the Western Wall and praying?”

“For about 60 years.”

“60 years! That’s amazing! What do you pray for?”

“I pray for peace between the Christians, Jews and the Muslims.”

“I pray for all the wars and all the hatred to stop.”

“I pray for all our children to grow up safely as responsible adults and to love their fellow man.”

“I pray that politicians tell us the truth and put the interests of the people ahead of their own interests.”

“How do you feel after doing this for 60 years?”

“Like I’m talking to a wall.”

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