CDC Commercial Inc

August 2016 Monthly Letter

Experience is that thing you get a minute after you needed it.

Well on the 9th I will turn the ripe old age of 55. I hear that 65 is the new 55 so I can only assume that 55 is the new 45! Groucho Marx used to say, “Anyone can get old. All you have to do is live long enough.” I was bolstered recently by two studies, one said that time starved people are happier than those who want more money. I don’t know about the money part but I must be happy as busy as I am! The second study said extremely busy people over 50 do better on cognitive tests. I am very happy though to be celebrating our 30th wedding anniversary this month. We have had a fun ride and have accomplished the “three E’s” with our four children; educated, employed, elsewhere!

Unemployment in San Diego took a turn for the worse in June edging up from 4.2% to 5.1% but remaining just below the 5.2% number of last year (so basically we are a wash). The Silvergate Bank business forecast reports the lowest confidence in 13 years from local business leaders. The biggest complaint is the new city minimum wage of $10.50 per hour (not to mention state increase to $15 in January). Time to assess the impact on your business or your tenants and how this will/could impact your rental stream.

As I have often preached, real estate values go up in places where more people are moving in than moving out. Gary London, a real estate consultant, recently reported that San Diego is in the midst of a “sea change” in how we are growing and how we are accommodating (or not) that growth. We have mostly run out of developable land, so most municipalities are instituting plans to grow vertically. This presents a number of tricky problems, below is a summary;

  • The unincorporated County contains practically all of the undeveloped land, and they put in place a new General Plan that can accommodate growth, but they have set a very “high bar” for new housing development.
  • The majority of new housing is planned to be multifamily, yet that is inconsistent with historical demand and housing preferences for single family homes. Aging millennials may disagree with being locked into “urban” units, as they start to raise families.
  • There is a long standing, and rising shortage of new housing construction. This is bidding up the cost of all housing and creating a regional inventory of housing that is unaffordable to many.
  • While the regional forecast is in sync with the many cities and County who say they will accommodate new housing through their General Plans, the “on the ground” experience of developers is very different. Project proposals regularly receive push back in the neighborhoods, resulting in no project or a smaller project.
  • The consequences of this can be dire including economic stagnation and decline; or San Diego may transform into a “boutique” region that is affordable only to the well-to-do.
I don’t know if it is just me aging but have you noticed the shift of healthcare uses moving into retail? Americans are spending more on healthcare and want to do so in locations that are convenient and safe. So now you will be able to get your blood pressure checked just steps from the steakhouse. The list of unconventional uses become conventional include, tattoo parlors, massage therapy, schools, gun ranges, churches and even funeral homes. Although the tenants may change, as long as humans are hard-wired to connect and congregate, the core purpose of retail will not change. It is up to the tenant what that experience will be.

Still on the topic of aging and real estate, I thought I would share the slides from a presentation on ADA that our office attended. Municipalities continue to tighten enforcement and we continue to see our clients being sued by advocates. This is a topic you should stay educated on:

As many of you know, I get obsessed with crazy challenges (trying to run a marathon on all 7 continents, trying to play golf in all 50 states, played 50 holes of golf on my 50

th birthday). Well for my 55th birthday, I am attempting to highlight volunteerism and my favorite charity, Interfaith Services (an Interdenominational Agency helping Veterans and homeless). Starting at 6am and ending at 5pm I am going to attempt to do 55 volunteer tasks. From you at minimum think about volunteering for something (it will make you feel younger and happier). If you feel so moved, please donate to Interfaith and my challenge – in the other section donate $55 and I will match the donation (of course if you wish to donate more feel free to).

If I would have known I was going to live this long, I would have taken better care of myself! Hope you enjoy the story…


Senior Wedding
Jacob, age 92, and Rebecca, age 89, living in Miami, are all excited about their decision to get married. They go for a stroll to discuss the wedding, and on the way they pass a drugstore, Jacob suggests they go in.
Jacob addresses the man behind the counter: “Are you the owner?”
The pharmacist answers, “Yes.”
Jacob: “We’re about to get married. Do you sell heart medication?”
Pharmacist: “Of course, we do.”
Jacob: “How about medicine for circulation?”
Pharmacist: “All kinds.”
Jacob: “Medicine for rheumatism?”
Pharmacist: “Definitely.”
Jacob: “How about suppositories?”
Pharmacist: “You bet!”
Jacob: “Medicine for memory problems, arthritis and Alzheimer’s?”
Pharmacist: “Yes, a large variety – the ‘works’.”
Jacob: “What about vitamins, sleeping pills, Grotto, antidotes for Parkinson’s disease?”
Pharmacist: “Absolutely.”
Jacob: “Everything for heartburn and indigestion?”
Pharmacist: “We sure do.”
Jacob: “You sell wheelchairs and walkers and canes?”
Pharmacist: “All speeds and sizes.”
Jacob: “Adult diapers?”
Pharmacist: “Sure.”
Jacob: “We’d like to use this store as our Bridal Registry.”

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