March 2012 Monthly Letter

The mood of the market is picking up and the obstacles to progress are getting to be fewer. A recent Citibank survey reported that 62% of those surveyed in San Diego said that their personal finances will get better this year. Vistage, a CEO Executive organization reported that 55 percent of respondents planned to increase employment and 73 percent expect revenue to grow.

With that said, we are seeing increases in call activity, showings and I am just hoping that it continues to be closed deals. Deals are not getting easier with us having to be more creative, more persistent and aggressive. No rose colored glasses here. 2012 is going to be tough plodding. Even with indicators of an economic recovery in progress, people are uneasy and doubtful. Tenants & Buyers want deals and we’re explaining to them that now is as good as it’s going to get. Owners & Landlords are capitulating and making deals at deep discounts. All of this should translate into the momentum needed to kick off full recovery. In the meantime, we’ll continue our role as player, coach, and fan as we chant; Close! Close! Close!

Staying on the optimistic front for a minute, The Wall Street Journal had a recent article called “The Coming Tech-led Boom” which was an incredible look at three transforming breakthroughs that are likely to transform our economy and fuel hyper economic growth. These areas are Big Data, smart manufacturing, and the wireless revolution. The first looks at the near free cost of data and data crunching that will spawn previously unimaginable services and businesses. The second paradigm is “smart manufacturing”, which is the revolution of taking things from design to built making things from the molecular level all the way to creating new materials and properties not possible in nature. The wireless revolution is more than just your smartphone it is the connectivity of billions of people, having the world literally at your fingertips (and your fingertip connected to your doctor, your banker or your grocer.) The U.S. is at the hub of this revolution and San Diego is at the epicenter.

Two other trends worth noting. As the economy recovers tourists are returning and San Diego expects an additional 100,000 tourists in 2012 than they did last year. And while we are toasting ourselves and our successes, watch for your local Starbucks (Southern California is a test market) to start serving wine and small plates of upscale food. I’m thinking this might be the closest that we Americans get to the British idea of the local pub as a social outlet. You can’t touch the people and share a drink on Facebook and that is why shopping centers as a community gathering and commerce centers will never die out.

Keep your pens ready for signing. Be creative and ready to overcome obstacles so as to make deals. “The obstacles are simply opportunities to improve our conditions.” Maintain an upbeat attitude that is shaped by your informed and realistic knowledge of real estate and the economy. Keep your chin up so that come to the end of the year we will have finished removing the boulders to our progress and be raising our glass to a successful 2012 at our local Starbucks!


The Obstacle in Our Path

In ancient times, a King had a boulder placed on a roadway. Then he hid and watched to see if anyone would remove the huge rock. Some of the King’s wealthiest merchants and courtiers came by and simply walked around it. Many loudly blamed the King for not keeping the roads clear, but none did anything about getting the stone out of the way.

Then a peasant came along carrying a load of vegetables. Upon approaching the boulder, the peasant laid down his burden and tried to move the stone to the side of the road. After much pushing and straining, he finally succeeded. After the peasant picked up his load of vegetables, he noticed a purse lying in the road where the boulder had been. The purse contained many gold coins and a note from the King indicating that the gold was for the person who removed the boulder from the roadway. The peasant learned what many of us fail to understand…every obstacle in our path presents an opportunity to improve our condition.

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