Basically, like, at the end of the day in these economic times, I was in my ginormous man cave on an amazing journey to wellness, which is the new normal. Seriously, Really? My bad. Nice!
Well, now that I have used all of the overuse words and phrases of our time, I can probably be a politician or an economist. Harry Truman once said he wanted a one-armed economist so he could stop them from saying “on the other hand.”
I am pleased to announce the 16th edition of The Gold Report, CDC Commercial’s look at the year ahead. Hopefully, you see it as a straightforward effort to disseminate the information we’ve gathered and report on the issues that matter most. To do our part in helping to bring this industry back and get the real estate engine churning again, making you happy and a more fulfilled person.
Pardon me for wearing it on my sleeve but 2012 is already starting to shape up better than most expected. We are finally seeing movement and movement will lead to momentum. Admittedly, to date, I have felt more like a geologist than an economist in detecting this movement. Deals are out there, now we just have to get them to close! We expect the first half of the year to be slightly better than the previous three years’ first halves and the back half of the year will be stronger than anyone is expecting. Despite the common perception of a wait and see election year, I expect most bets and expectations set in place by June and July. Reports of a strong first half of the year will also fuel those fires and create momentum.
Already single-family permit valuations are up 10% from year-ago in San Diego. Nonresidential building was up 73% year-over-year with two-thirds of it going toward renovations and expansions (this is the recycling of old space.) San Diego added almost 27,000 jobs from December 2010 to December 2011 – 4100 of them between November and December.
In the meantime, I am pleased to announce that I am unemployed every morning when I wake up and go to work for you trying to earn a paycheck (or commission as the case might be), from helping great clients like you. I was both pleased and humbled last month when I was told that the San Diego Daily Transcript had named me one of San Diego’s most influential business people. Not bad for a guy who has been unemployed every morning for 27 years! Wow – Thank you!
Though I see 2012 as a bright, transitional year we still are a polarized society, socially and politically. Even in sports we have become polarized to a level of violence. Rivalries are great but to heighten them to a level where fans are beaten, beer was thrown on them etc. is a society out of control.
Our sports are supposed to be metaphors for life. We need to look to them as ways to solve our polarization and differences. We need to get back to running over an opponent but then giving them a hand back up. The American way is to be the best, play hard, win and then turn and help up our worthy opponents. Then they mimic us, learn our skills and compete with us and make us improve again.
In sports when you get beat and you have a losing season you change coaches (except in San Diego) replace players, train differently, have new plays and gamebooks and take the field again. As in sports, we in the USA need to get back on the field give everything we have to win, then win and be humble about it while we keep trying to get better so we can keep winning.
May I take this opportunity to wish you an early Happy Valentine’s Day. Did you know that in the Middle Ages, young men and women drew names from a bowl to see who their Valentines would be? They would wear these names on their sleeves for one week. To wear your heart on your sleeve now means that it is easy for other people to know how you are feeling. I hope you share our passion (as we wear it on our sleeve) this year and enjoyed reading this year’s Gold Report.
Download here; www.cdccommercial.com/GoldReport2012
