A woman goes into the post office to buy stamps for her Christmas cards. “What denomination?” the clerk asked. “Oh, good heavens! Have we come to this?” the woman asks. “Well, give me 50 Catholics and 50 Baptists.”
Explaining the state of the economy at the moment is a conundrum. The labor market is good – as is much of the economy – and yet people say that everything is terrible. I have to say, now that the news is getting bad, I am about to start being positive again! Opportunities should start showing up under the Christmas tree soon.
All the major brokerage firms are reporting giant drops in revenue and they are all pushing out their projections of recovery. JLL net income down 57%. Cushman Wakefield revenue down 11%. Colliers revenue down 6%. Marcus & Millichap brokerage commissions fell more than 50% in the 3rd quarter compared to the previous year. Meantime, little old CDC Commercial will post its biggest year in its 28-year history!
These are the times where we shine. In times of change and tumult, we are here to share our knowledge and experience. Helping to find interesting pockets for investments, showing compelling data, seeking out green shoots when they appear. If nothing else, we are coaching our clients to “stay alive until ’25!”
John Wooden, legendary basketball coach, (and whose pyramid of success is what the CDC Commercial logo and business plan is shaped around) said, “When the going gets tough, the tough get going.”
Nick’s Numbers
Interest rates have gone up an amazing 11 times since March of 2022. The Fed is trying to kill off inflation at any cost. Historically, sellers don’t cut prices enough to get buyers off the sidelines until they are forced to buy their loan coming due. The chart below gives insight into the bubble ahead and what opportunities might lie ahead.
If you would like an analysis of your properties’ value or discuss what you should be doing with regard to interest rates or inflation and their impacts on your business, tenants, or property, I’d be happy to talk. (Nick Zech, 858-232-2100, nzech@cdccommerical.com).
I’m an eclectic reader but thought I would share some of my favorite books of the year as you seek Christmas gifts this year (Yes, Some of the links below are affiliate links. This means that, at zero cost to you, I will earn an affiliate commission if you click through the link and finalize a purchase.)
- Elon Musk
- Outlive
- The Price of Time
- The Spy Masters
- The Art of Impossible
- George Washington’s Secret Six The Spy ring that saved the American Revolution
- The Boys, a Memoir of Hollywood and Family
- The Daughters of Kobani
- The Bomber Mafia
- The Original Black Elite
With the holiday season upon us, we’d like to wish you all the best of holiday wishes and give thanks to you for your business, referrals or just maintaining our relationship. With all the drama in the world today and the seemingly endless negative spin, we hope you enjoy this month’s story…
The Monks’ Story
A monastery has fallen on hard times. It was once part of a great order which, as a result of religious persecution in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries, lost all its branches. It was decimated to the extent that these were only five monks left in the mother house: the Abbott and four others, all of whom were over seventy. Clearly it was a dying order.
Deep in the woods surrounding the monastery was a little hut that the Rabbis from a nearby town occasionally used for a hermitage. One day, it occurred to the Abbott to visit the hermitage to see if the Rabbi could offer any advice that might save the monastery. The Rabbi welcomed the Abbott and commiserated, “I know how it is,” he said. “The spirit has gone out of people. Almost no one comes to the synagogue anymore.” So the old Rabbi and the old Abbott wept together, and they read parts of the Torah and spoke quietly of deep things.
The time came when the Abbott had to leave. They embraced. “It has been wonderful being with you,” said the Abbott. “But I have failed in my purpose for coming. Have you no piece of advice that might save the monastery?” “No, I am sorry,” the Rabbi responded. “I have no advice to give. The only thing I can tell you is that the Messiah is one of you.”
When the other monks heard the Rabbi’s words, they wondered what possible significance they might have. “The Messiah is one of us? One of us here at the monastery? Do you suppose he meant the Abbott? Of course – it must be the Abbott, who has been our leader for so long. On the other hand, he might have meant Brother Thomas, who is certainly a holy man. Or could he have meant Brother Elrod, who is so crotchety? But then Elrod is very wise. Surely, he could not have meant Brother Philip – he’s too passive. But then, magically, he’s always there when you need him. Of course, he didn’t mean me – well supposing he did? Oh lord, not me! I couldn’t mean that much to you, could I?
As they contemplated in this manner, the old monks began to treat each other with extraordinary respect, on the off chance that one of them might be the Messiah. And on the off chance that each monk himself might be the Messiah, they began to treat themselves with extraordinary respect.
Because the forest in which it was situated was beautiful, people occasionally came to visit the monastery to picnic or to wander along the old paths, most of which led to a dilapidated chapel. They sensed the aura of extraordinary respect that surrounded the five old monks, permeating the atmosphere. They began to come more frequently, bringing their friends, and their friends brought friends. Some of the younger men who came to visit began to engage in conversation with the monks. After a while, one asked if he might join. Then another, and another. Within a few years, the monastery become once again a thriving order, and – thanks to the Rabbi’s gift – a vibrant authentic community of light and love for the whole realm.
This year may you find the Messiah amongst you or at least his spirit.
Happy Holidays from the Team at CDC Commercial
Don, Nick, Matt, Peter, Cheryl
